Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events.  These are also available through the Occultation Portal

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
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Here below you can find predictions for events by:

  • The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
  • OWC Logo The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992)  2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188  708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1. 
  • NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σa < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

 

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible.

 

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.



Interesting events in the near future



Didymos 

Date Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
03/10/2022 UCAC4 315-005592 4 42 53 -27 0 9 11.4 3.4 0.13 Australia  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
10/10/2022 UCAC4 364-010192 5 53 22 -17 15 18 11.7 3.4 0.14 Australia  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
12/10/2022 UCAC4 376-011231 6 6 56 -14 57 50 11.9 3.4 0.15 North America  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
17/10/2022 TYC 5374-01227-1 6 9 10 -14 32 55 11.3 4.0 0.15 Australia  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
17/10/2022 UCAC4 407-016500 6 40 34 -9 39 57 11.6 3.9 0.16 Europe  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
18/10/2022 TYC 4812-03777-1 6 46 26 -7 29 15 11.3 4.2 0.17 Europe  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
18/10/2022 UCAC4 415-020209 6 48 9 -7 8 40 11.9 3.7 0.17 North America  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
18/10/2022 TYC 4812-01039-1 6 50 16 -6 42 45 11.2 4.4 0.17 Japan  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
21/10/2022 UCAC4 431-026403 7 3 22 -3 59 15 11.6 4.2 0.18 Europe  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
25/10/2022 UCAC4 450-034260 7 21 40 "-0" 1 3 12.6 3.3 0.19 Europe  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
27/10/2022 UCAC4 461-035669 7 30 46 2 2 30 12.0 4.0 0.21 North America 2022 10 03 65803 didymos 
27/10/2022 UCAC4 462-034524 7 32 11 2 22 17 11.6 4.4 0.21 Japan  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
29/10/2022 TYC 182-02279-1 7 36 38 3 23 58 11.7 4.3 0.22 Europe  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
01/11/2022 TYC 192-00355-1 7 46 38 5 48 5 11.3 4.9 0.23 Europe  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
01/11/2022 UCAC4 481-039922 7 47 39 6 2 46 12.3 3.8 0.24 North America  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
03/11/2022 TYC 193-01404-1 7 52 49 7 20 7 11.1 5.0 0.25 North America  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
04/11/2022 TYC 780-01837-1 7 54 55 7 53 1 8.9 7.3 0.26 South America  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
04/11/2022 UCAC4 491-047590 7 55 58 8 8 11 13.0 3.3 0.26 Japan  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
08/11/2022 UCAC4 503-047510 8 4 45 10 33 8 11.1 5.1 0.28 Australia  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
11/11/2022 UCAC4 510-045878 8 9 7 11 50 22 12.4 3.9 0.30 Europe/Africa  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
19/11/2022 UCAC4 529-045889 8 19 21 15 41 43 11.2 5.2 0.37 Europe/Africa  2022 10 03 65803 didymos
20/11/2022 UCAC4 532-045515 8 20 20 16 14 0 12.4 4.0 0.37 North America  2022 10 03 65803 didymos

Didymos events for October and November in XML format for Occult (~8 000 in total).



Potential Hera secondary Targets

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
10/10/2022 29 886 Randytung UCAC 351-081651 16 40 6 -19 54 43 14.2 6.5 0.1 Australia  2022 10 10 randytung
11/10/2022 29 886 Randytung UCAC 350-082606 16 42 26 -20 0 6 15.7 5.0 0.1 South America  2022 10 10 randytung
17/10/2022 122 764 2000 SX69 UCAC 346-099757 17 25 7 -20 57 3 13.2 7.8 0.05 South America  2022 10 10 randytung
26/10/2022 122 764 2000 SX69 UCAC 344-112958 17 45 16 -21 16 10 14.0 7.0 0.05 South America  2022 10 10 randytung

OtherHera targets' events for October and November in XML format for Occult (~2 000 in total).



Other NEAs 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
01/10/2022 2 063 Bacchus UCAC4 221-137934 17 24 2 -45 52 3 12.7 4.7 0.22 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
03/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon TYC 3312-02354-1 3 26 0 46 18 30 11.4 6.4 0.29 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
04/10/2022 2 063 Bacchus UCAC4 230-132072 17 18 49 -44 9 1 11.1 6.4 0.21 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
05/10/2022 11 405 1999 CV3 TYC 7006-00843-1 1 58 52 -31 1 16 11.8 5.3 0.13 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
09/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon TYC 3310-01992-1 3 10 45 46 16 50 10.7 6.9 0.26 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
10/10/2022 1 580 Betulia TYC 8058-00143-1 3 6 11 -47 10 18 11.4 6.8 0.42 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
10/10/2022 2 100 Ra-Shalom UCAC4 314-245837 20 48 51 -27 19 11 13.5 2.0 0.58 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
10/10/2022 22 099 2000 EX106 UCAC4 458-042320 8 10 4 1 35 39 12.0 7.2 0.12 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
15/10/2022 137 199 1994 KX4 UCAC4 265-194995 22 10 33 -37 1 15 14.7 5.2 0.24 South America 2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
17/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon UCAC4 678-015436 2 44 12 45 33 5 12.2 5.3 0.23 Asia/Africa  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
18/10/2022 1 620 Geographos UCAC4 691-032766 5 1 24 48 0 51 12.5 4.7 0.36 North America 2022 10 01 2063 bacchus 
18/10/2022 1 620 Geographos UCAC4 691-032694 5 0 56 48 9 2 13.8 3.4 0.36 Europe/Asia 2022 10 01 2063 bacchus 
19/10/2022 1 620 Geographos UCAC4 692-032289 5 0 28 48 16 18 13.6 3.6 0.35 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
21/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon UCAC4 675-013356 2 32 9 44 56 40 10.8 6.6 0.23 Asia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
21/10/2022 23 187 2000 PN9 UCAC4 507-091655 18 54 4 11 19 12 11.4 9.9 0.08 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
22/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon UCAC4 674-012720 2 28 23 44 43 8 12.8 4.6 0.22 Asia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
23/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon UCAC4 674-012582 2 27 15 44 38 54 12.2 5.2 0.22 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
26/10/2022 11 405 1999 CV3 UCAC4 283-001455 1 24 13 -33 36 0 12.0 5.6 0.17 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
31/10/2022 3 200 Phaethon UCAC4 664-008716 2 2 23 42 38 20 12.9 4.5 0.22 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
02/11/2022 17 511 1992 QN HIP 116550 23 37 12 7 43 43 10.2 8.5 0.22 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
07/11/2022 1 580 Betulia TYC 8042-01140-1 2 12 37 -45 10 23 11.3 7.2 0.36 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
07/11/2022 16 834 1997 WU22 TYC 1876-00945-1 6 4 6 28 12 50 11.4 7.3 0.35 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
08/11/2022 16 834 1997 WU22 UCAC4 591-025998 6 3 46 28 10 36 12.5 6.2 0.34 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
13/11/2022 96 590 1998 XB UCAC4 207-180289 20 41 36 -48 40 53 10.6 6.1 0.05 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
17/11/2022 2 102 Tantalus UCAC4 503-054874 11 5 41 10 34 42 12.9 4.8 0.05 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
18/11/2022 96 590 1998 XB UCAC4 237-173604 21 40 14 -42 44 16 12.0 4.5 0.05 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
20/11/2022 22 099 2000 EX106 TYC 4882-00577-1 9 4 39 -2 28 42 9.0 9.9 0.31 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
23/11/2022 96 590 1998 XB UCAC4 270-197661 22 22 51 -36 6 1 11.4 4.9 0.05 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
27/11/2022 96 590 1998 XB UCAC4 299-237695 22 51 42 -30 14 25 12.1 4.3 0.05 Australia  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
29/11/2022 96 590 1998 XB HIP 113677 23 1 26 -28 0 43 8.3 8.0 0.05 North America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus
30/11/2022 16 834 1997 WU22 UCAC4 580-016713 5 34 48 25 48 28 12.5 5.4 0.17 South America  2022 10 01 2063 bacchus

Other NEA events for July and August in XML format for Occult (~12 000 in total).