Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events.  These are also available through the Occultation Portal

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
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Here below you can find predictions for events by:

  • The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
  • OWC Logo The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992)  2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188  708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1. 
  • NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σa < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

 

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

 

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible.

 

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.



Interesting events in the near future



Didymos

See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !

 

Date Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
6/13/2023 UCAC4 524-050792 10 7 44 14 47 28 15 7.3 0.03 Africa  2023 06 13 65803 didymos
6/22/2023 UCAC4 517-051122 10 22 45 13 14 10 15 7.7 0.03 Asia 2023 06 22 65803 didymos 
6/29/2023 UCAC4 511-050451 10 34 7 12 1 45 15 7.8 0.02 South Asia  2023 06 29 65803 didymos
7/5/2023 UCAC4 505-053058 10 44 10 10 56 33 13 10.3 0.02 South Asia  2023 07 05 65803 didymos
7/9/2023 UCAC4 501-054891 10 51 30 10 8 14 14 9.3 0.02 Africa  2023 07 09 65803 didymos

 

 

 Didymos Events for May and June in XML format for Occult (~30 in total).



Potential Hera secondary Targets

 

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
6/4/2023 42,532 1995 OR UCAC4 493-000480 0 24 7 -2 23 6 14 5.5 0.09 New Zealand 2023 06 04 42532 1995 or 
6/5/2023 95,802 Francismuir UCAC4 501-002506 1 42 41 10 7 28 13 6.9 0.06 South America  2023 06 05 95802 francismuir
6/14/2023 477,416 2009 WW1 UCAC4 388-146156 22 10 22 -12 32 30 13 10.2 0.19 South Asia  2023 06 14 477416 2009 ww1
6/16/2023 477,416 2009 WW1 UCAC4 388-146173 22 10 54 -12 31 18 15 7.5 0.21 Australia  2023 06 16 477416 2009 ww1
6/24/2023 42,532 1995 OR UCAC4 458-001445 1 4 54 1 30 33 14 5 0.11 Australia  2023 06 24 42532 1995 or
6/28/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 314-245041 20 37 7 -27 13 32 14 6.7 0.2 Africa 2023 06 28 169549 2002 eg105 
7/2/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 312-252787 20 34 5 -27 38 1 14 5.8 0.18 North America 2023 07 02 169549 2002 eg105 
7/2/2023 477,416 2009 WW1 UCAC4 387-144956 22 12 19 -12 41 13 13 9.8 0.41 Australia  2023 07 02 477416 2009 ww1
7/9/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 309-258853 20 27 49 -28 19 49 12 7.5 0.16 North America 2023 07 09 169549 2002 eg105 
7/15/2023 95,802 Francismuir G 025629.8+160618 2 56 30 16 6 18 11 1 0.08 Europe 2023 07 15 95802 francismuir 
7/15/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 TYC 6918-00086-1 20 21 12 -28 55 38 12 8.1 0.15 Australia  2023 07 15 169549 2002 eg105
7/24/2023 29,886 Randytung UCAC4 415-145521 22 38 35 -7 11 46 14 5.5 0.47 Australia  2023 07 24 29886 randytung
7/27/2023 88,992 2001 TJ72 UCAC4 529-005128 3 0 25 15 44 2 13 7.8 0.07 North America 2023 07 27 88992 2001 tj72 
7/30/2023 42,532 1995 OR UCAC4 485-002983 2 6 52 6 51 35 12 6.8 0.18 Australia  2023 07 30 42532 1995 or
7/31/2023 42,532 1995 OR UCAC4 485-003010 2 7 56 6 56 32 15 3.7 0.18 North America  2023 07 31 42532 1995 or

 

OtherHera targets' events for May and June in XML format for Occult ( ~300 in total).



Other NEAs

 

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
6/1/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 297-102002 16 53 47 -30 45 42 14 2.1 0.33 North America 2023 06 01 1685 toro 
6/1/2023 1,685 Toro HIP 82570 16 52 44 -30 41 43 8.6 6.9 0.33 SouthEast Asia 2023 06 01 1685 toro 2 
6/1/2023 175,706 1999 FG3 UCAC4 500-054674 9 44 47 9 50 60 14 5.3 0.12 Europe  2023 06 01 175706 1996 fg3
6/2/2023 66,391 Moshup UCAC4 460-027445 7 2 23 1 49 58 11 7.1 0.04 Australia  2023 06 02 66391 moshup
6/6/2023 186,844 2004 GA1 TYC 5520-00412-1 11 52 30 -10 23 38 11 6.1 0.15 South America  2023 06 06 186844 2004ga1
6/7/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 570-003539 1 39 58 23 48 6 12 4.3 0.1 Europe 2023 06 07 137170 1999 hf1 
6/8/2023 66,391 Moshup UCAC4 455-041479 7 56 5 0 53 14 11 1 0.04 Australia  2023 06 08 66391 moshup
6/11/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 305-093042 16 30 43 -29 4 35 13 2.1 0.32 South America  2023 06 11 1685 toro
6/14/2023 175,706 1999 FG3 TYC 829-00550-1 10 1 56 8 39 56 11 8.6 0.13 Japan  2023 06 14 175706 1996 fg3
6/16/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 510-054593 12 34 18 11 54 58 15 0.8 1.05 Australia 2023 06 16 1627 ivar 
6/20/2023 66,391 Moshup TYC 235-02200-1 9 38 16 0 14 19 11 6.9 0.05 North America 2023 06 20 66391 moshup 
6/21/2023 186,844 2004 GA1 UCAC4 448-052933 11 25 29 0 ## 18 13 5.1 0.14 Japan  2023 06 21 186844 2004ga1
6/21/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 317-083700 16 7 10 -26 42 56 15 1.3 0.34 Australia 2023 06 21 1685 toro 
6/21/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 555-006721 3 23 19 20 58 14 7.2 9.1 0.09 Australia 2023 06 21 137170 1999 hf1 
6/22/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 318-085511 16 5 54 -26 34 4 14 2 0.34 North America  2023 06 22 1685 toro
6/23/2023 175,706 1999 FG3 UCAC4 490-05294 10 12 37 7 57 30 13 7 0.16 North America 2023 06 23 175706 1996 fg3 
6/23/2023 186,844 2004 GA1 TYC 264-00066-1 11 22 4 0 47 55 11 6.3 0.14 Australia 2023 06 23 186844 2004ga1 
6/23/2023 1,685 Toro HIP 78563 16 2 29 -26 8 53 6.3 9.3 0.43 South Africa 2023 06 23 1685 toro 
6/25/2023 186,844 2004 GA1 TYC 263-00230-1 11 18 1 2 24 31 9.9 7.7 0.14 Australia 2023 06 25 186844 2004ga1 
6/25/2023 66,391 Moshup UCAC4 452-048365 10 18 12 0 16 43 12 5.9 0.05 Australia 2023 06 25 66391 moshup 
6/27/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 324-080069 15 56 11 -25 19 14 13 2.5 0.37 North America 2023 06 27 1685 toro 
7/2/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 490-056619 12 54 3 7 57 28 14 1 0.76 North America  2023 07 02 1627 ivar
7/4/2023 186,844 2004 GA1 TYC 850-01192-1 10 53 40 11 18 51 9.1 9.1 0.11 Africa  2023 07 04 186844 2004 ga1
7/6/2023 186,844 2004 GA1 UCAC4 517-051683 10 47 21 13 20 51 13 5.1 0.1 Australia 2023 07 06 186844 2004 ga1 
7/8/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 337-075292 15 39 48 -22 36 24 14 1.9 0.45 Australia  2023 07 08 1685 toro
7/9/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 338-077126 15 39 17 -22 29 52 13 3 0.46 South America 2023 07 09 1685 toro
7/10/2023 1,685 Toro HIP 76508 15 37 31 -22 7 1 6.9 9.1 0.5 Asia  2023 07 10 1685 toro
7/14/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 344-074986 15 34 25 -21 20 14 14 1.9 0.57 Japan  2023 07 14 1685 toro
7/18/2023 66,391 Moshup TYC 281-00694-1 12 16 25 0 48 14 12 6.3 0.06 Australia  2023 07 18 66391 moshup
7/20/2023 66,391 Moshup TYC 282-00648-1 12 24 49 0 49 53 11 7.7 0.06 Africa  2023 07 20 66391 moshup
7/23/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 457-051664 13 33 11 1 12 43 15 0.7 0.54 North America  2023 07 23 1627 ivar
7/25/2023 1,943 Anteros UCAC4 571-006391 2 57 51 24 8 20 14 5.8 0.1 Australia  2023 07 25 1943 anteros
7/29/2023 1,943 Anteros UCAC4 574-006561 3 5 5 24 38 21 13 6.1 0.11 Australia 2023 07 29 1943 anteros 
7/30/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 443-058527 13 50 22 -1 31 37 13 1.4 0.5 Japan 2023 07 30 1627 ivar 

 

 

Other NEA targets' events for May and June in XML format for Occult (~4500 in total, caution with Occult limit!).